Electric vehicle (EV) diffusion is critical for sustainable goals, yet it faces various uncertainties. This study develops an agent-based model (ABM) simulating EV diffusion paths under market shocks and policy interventions with heterogeneous social networks. The model demonstrates an enhanced capability for depicting EV diffusion amid turbulent times. Results show that market shocks arising from public opinion crises induce the most severe impacts on EV diffusion, while price shocks and financial crises have moderate effects. Although EV market shows resilience to moderate shocks, its diffusion process can be interrupted by large-scale public opinion crises. Public information campaigns boost short-term demand but risk depleting long-term market potential. In contrast, infrastructure policies are slow to have effects, but work for long-term expansions. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that effective shock mitigation requires tailored policy interventions: public information campaigns favor regions with weak social networks, infrastructure policies work for high-income consumers, and the optimal interventions shift from plate-quota policies and public information campaigns to infrastructure policies as the EV market matures.
主要创新点：
在理论框架方面，研究构建了一个整合多维市场冲击与政策响应的综合概念框架，纳入了计划行为理论、创新扩散理论及多属性效用理论，刻画了外部扰动通过改变消费者态度、感知属性及社会规范进而影响决策的微观机制 。
在研究方法方面，开发动态集成了针对多样化市场冲击与政策工具的专用模块，并刻画社会网络中的动态互动与情感传染，实现了在冲击环境下对电动汽车扩散的仿真模型 。
在实践启示方面，识别了各种冲击的作用排序，发现舆论危机可能中断电动汽车扩散进程，识别了各情景下不同干预政策效用，为政府制定冲击应对政策提供了决策依据。
原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109161
